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The Indus Water Treaty, signed in 1960 between India and Pakistan, has long been considered a model for transboundary water-sharing agreements. However, recent developments indicate a shift in India’s stance. In January 2023, India issued a formal notice to Pakistan, seeking amendments to the treaty due to Pakistan’s lack of cooperation on several key fronts. This marks a significant departure from the decades-old agreement that had helped both nations manage water resources despite intermittent geopolitical tensions.
India’s recent actions highlight fundamental changes in the regional dynamics and environmental considerations that necessitate a reevaluation of the treaty.Pakistan, which relies heavily on the Indus River system for its agricultural and economic needs, has raised concerns over India’s growing infrastructural projects, including hydroelectric power generation on the western rivers. As climate change and water scarcity become critical global issues, the future of the Indus Water Treaty appears uncertain, with both countries seeking to safeguard their water rights amid increasing tensions.
Over the years, the treaty has become a focal point of disputes, as changing geopolitical dynamics, climate concerns, and infrastructural developments have triggered tensions between the two neighboring nations. For students looking to understand the complexities surrounding the Indus Water Treaty, here are six essential aspects that encapsulate its journey from a peace-promoting agreement to an ongoing diplomatic challenge.
1. Origins of the Indus Water Treaty and Its Framework
The Indus Water Treaty (IWT) was brokered by the World Bank and signed on September 19, 1960, by India’s then Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and Pakistan’s President Ayub Khan. The agreement aimed to establish a framework for the cooperative and equitable sharing of the Indus River and its tributaries, which were vital for agriculture, drinking water, and industry in both nations.
The treaty granted India control over the eastern rivers — Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej — while Pakistan was allocated the western rivers — Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab. India, although controlling the eastern rivers, was allowed limited agricultural and non-consumptive uses (such as hydroelectric power generation) on the western rivers. Pakistan, meanwhile, received 80% of the water resources, making the treaty a significant concession in its favour.
2. Permanent Indus Commission and Dispute Resolution Mechanism
A crucial part of the treaty’s success is the creation of the Permanent Indus Commission, which comprises representatives from both countries. The Commission is responsible for facilitating annual meetings, data exchange, and monitoring compliance with the treaty’s provisions. It serves as the first level of dispute resolution, with issues being addressed through bilateral dialogue.
For unresolved disputes, the treaty provides a three-tiered mechanism:
• Permanent Indus Commission – A platform for direct negotiation.
• Neutral Expert – Appointed by the World Bank to address technical disagreements.
• Court of Arbitration – A higher level of resolution for issues that cannot be solved through earlier steps.

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3. Key Hydroelectric Projects and Pakistan’s Objections
India has the right to develop run-of-the-river hydroelectric projects on the western rivers, provided the flow is not significantly obstructed. Over the years, India’s projects, such as the Kishanganga and Ratle Hydroelectric projects in Jammu and Kashmir, have become contentious issues, with Pakistan frequently raising objections over their designs.
For example, in 2013, Pakistan sought the involvement of the Permanent Court of Arbitration regarding the Kishanganga project, claiming that it would reduce the flow of water into the Neelum River (as it is known in Pakistan). The court ruled in favor of India, allowing the diversion of water with specific conditions. Pakistan’s resistance to such projects continues to strain relations.
4. The Changing Geopolitical Landscape and Water Tensions
The treaty, while successful in ensuring decades of water-sharing stability, has faced renewed scrutiny due to evolving geopolitical tensions. Following major incidents such as the 2016 Uri attack and the 2019 Pulwama attack, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi made statements implying that water and blood cannot flow together, hinting at reconsidering the treaty in light of security concerns.
In January 2023, India formally notified Pakistan of its intention to amend the Indus Water Treaty, citing Pakistan’s failure to cooperate on multiple fronts. This notice marks a significant shift, as it signals India’s readiness to take a more assertive stance regarding its water rights, especially as Pakistan has refused to resolve disputes through existing mechanisms.
5. Climate Change and the Indus Basin’s Sustainability
The Indus River system, crucial for agriculture and sustenance in both countries, faces a growing threat from climate change. The Himalayan glaciers, which feed the river, are melting at an accelerated rate, impacting water availability. The variability in monsoon patterns adds another layer of unpredictability, with both countries facing the risk of water scarcity or excessive flooding. According to NASA, the Indus basin is one of the most over-stressed in the world, making future cooperation and management critical.
The treaty lacks specific provisions for dealing with environmental challenges, leaving room for potential disputes over water usage as the effects of climate change become more pronounced.
6. What Lies Ahead: Revisiting the Treaty or a New Framework?
The Indus Water Treaty has stood the test of time, surviving wars and diplomatic breakdowns between India and Pakistan. However, with the evolving political, environmental, and technological landscape, both countries may need to revisit certain provisions to address modern challenges. Experts suggest enhancing the treaty to incorporate climate change adaptations, environmental flows, and data transparency between the nations.
India’s recent moves, including plans to divert water from the eastern rivers to fully utilize its share and develop new infrastructure, underscore its intention to assert its rights. Pakistan, on the other hand, remains heavily reliant on the Indus system for its agricultural backbone, making any changes to the treaty a sensitive issue.
Future of the Indus Water Treaty Hangs in the Balance
The Indus Water Treaty has historically been a symbol of cooperation, but recent developments highlight the challenges both nations face in adapting to new realities. Understanding the treaty’s significance, its provisions, and the disputes that arise from it are essential for students studying international relations, water diplomacy, and environmental policy. As the world grapples with resource management in the face of climate change, the Indus Water Treaty remains a pivotal case study in transboundary water-sharing agreements.